Strong Dollar will take a $30B Bite Out of City’s Tourism

Midtown workers may have one less worry thanks to a decision by European Central Bank — no more sidewalks clogged with tourists.

But it means $30 billion in lost revenue for the city. Last week, the Central Bank cut interest rates and introduced new stimulus plans to goose Europe’s economy. That immediately decreased the value of the euro against the dollar.

The city’s burgeoning $61 billion annual tourism business, generated by the 59 million expected visitors this year — including 12 million high rollers from overseas, twice as many as a decade ago — could soon see massive declines as prices for local goods and services skyrocket because of a strong dollar, analysts say.

That plunge could see spending by overseas visitors in New York City shrink by as much as 50 percent from today, according to currency expert Dennis Nixon, president and CEO of IBC Bank.

Foreign visitors from the UK, Germany, Italy and other EU countries will be forced to pay far more in their home currencies as these currencies sharply weaken against the strengthening greenback.

Currency analysts are already eyeing a big tumble in the euros exchanged by Europeans when they travel abroad.

“In the next six to 12 months, the pressure on the euro is going to be intense,” Nixon told The Post. “If the euro drops, the [British pound] sterling will drop too,” added Nixon, who said other major currencies would be pulled down in “sympathy.”

Conversely, the stronger dollar will not only make our imports cheaper, but will buy more for American tourists abroad.

But that’s not much help for the Big Apple, and only encourages more Americans to bypass the city for vacations in Dublin and Paris, analysts say.

Goldman Sachs analysts delivered the most damning forecast in recent days — putting NYC tourism planners, in one of the city’s most successful industries, in a horrible pickle.

Overseas visitors would lose as much as one-third or more on their home currencies in exchange for dollars, compared with the better rate against a weaker dollar earlier this year.

By Goldman’s reckoning, global currencies, led by the euro, would tumble between now and 2017. That would then require overseas tourists — who today snap up cheap bargains, from hotels and restaurants to merchandise and Broadway shows, with their stronger currencies — to pay a heavy premium just to own the same number of dollars they’ve long enjoyed spending.

Goldman specifically focused on the euro, forecasting the common currency to hit parity in 2017 with the greenback for the first time since 2002. But since it kept its forecast constant against other world currencies, the dollar by implication also slides against them. The single currency will reach $1.15 by the end of next year, and $1.05 by 2016, according to Goldman.

“We believe the dynamics of the euro have fundamentally changed,” Goldman analysts wrote.

Tourist officials say New York is a unique jewel that can withstand currency shocks. Still, a one-night $250 hotel stay in Manhattan, once available for 185 euros (@ 0.74 euros per dollar recently), would surge to 250 euros by 2017.

Source : http://nypost.com

Filed Under: Tourism

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