Thousands of tourists who were on holiday in Tunisia when Friday’s beach resort massacre took place have arrived back in the UK, as experts said the country’s tourism industry may be hit hard in the coming months.

Abta, the Association of British Travel Agents, said about 8,000 of the 20,000 Britons who were on holiday in Tunisia before the attack had flown home. More may be travelling independently of package tours.

Tourism has been a slow-growing industry for Tunisia’s fledgling democracy, and took a hit after a deadly attack on the Bardo museum in Tunis in March. The sector accounted for around 14.5% of Tunisian GDP last year.

Tui and Thomas Cook shares tumbled when the stock market opened in London on Monday, as traders reacted to the attack in Tunisia and the Greek debt crisis.

The Tunisian student Seifeddine Rezgui killed 38 people when opened fire on the Imperial Marhaba and the Bellevue beach hotels. Seventeen people from the UK and Ireland have been confirmed among the dead, but that toll could rise.

Nadejda Popova, a senior travel analyst at Euromonitor International, said tourism growth was “highly dependent on the safety and stability in Tunisia” and that travellers were now likely to avoid the country in the short to medium term. Tunisia does have a history of being quite resilient after terror attacks and threats, but this attack has had much more media coverage, comparatively, to the museum attack a few months ago and will make travellers even more cautious,” she said.

Large hotels, such as those the gunman targeted on Friday, may bear the biggest losses. “They are more of a target and tourists may choose to opt to go to smaller places if the authorities are not able to respond effectively,” Popova said.

Tunisia’s tourism ministry confirmed plans on Monday to deploy 1,000 armed officers from 1 July to reinforce the tourism police, who will also carry guns for the first time. Armed officers will be deployed inside and outside hotels, on beaches and at tourist and archaeological sites, the ministry said.

Tui, which owns Thomson and First Choice, said 4,000 of its customers had flown back to the UK since the attack, although the firm does not use the hotels affected.

The company ihas offered customers due to travel to Tunisia before 4 July the chance to cancel or change their booking, with those travelling later in July able to rearrange free of charge. It has also scheduled three extra flights to Cape Verde, Rhodes and Gran Canaria as possible alternative destinations.

“As it stands, the [Foreign Office] are not advising against all travel to Tunisia and therefore holidaymakers who want to continue their holiday can do so as planned and return on their scheduled flights,” a spokesman for Tui said. “We are aware that some families continue to wait for news of their loved ones. We have been working closely with the FCO and Metropolitan police and, once they have completed their initial formalities, we are offering all possible support to the families of those who have died or have been injured. This includes, should they wish to, flying them to and from Tunisia.”

Jet2 has hinted that it may now review whether it continues to offer holidays in the country. The company deployed three extra aircraft to Tunisia over the weekend, and its chief executive, Steve Heapy, is visiting its partner hotels in Sousse, Port el Kantaoui and four other resorts, and meeting customers who have chosen to stay on holiday.

The company has cancelled all flights and holidays to Tunisia up to and including 5 July, offering customers a refund or an option to change their booking. Customers booked until the end of July are also able to change their destination. “We are currently looking at options for those customers travelling from 1 August and in 2016 and will provide further updates on this,” a spokesperson said.

The Foreign Office has updated its travel advice for Tunisia, telling travellers to be “especially vigilant” and not to travel to the Chaambi mountain national park area, the Tunisia-Algeria border crossings at Ghardimaou, Hazoua and Sakiet Sidi Youssef, the militarised area south of El Borma and Dehiba or within 3 miles of the Libyan border.

“Further terrorist attacks in Tunisia, including in tourist resorts, are possible, including by individuals who are unknown to the authorities and whose actions are inspired by terrorist groups via social media,” the advice says. “You should be especially vigilant at this time and follow the advice of Tunisian security authorities and your tour operator.”

David Cameron announced on Monday that an additional RAF C17 transport plane had been deployed to help bring tourists home, and potentially to repatriate bodies. Almost 400 officers were at UK airports over the weekend to speak to potential witnesses as they returned.

Sources: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/29/tunisia-tourism-industry-tough-period-thousands-leave-attack