China is having a difficult year with the economy slowing faster than expected, the stock market bubble bursting in stages in spite of government support and the Tianjin explosion killing more than a hundred people and exposing again the very real dangers of corruption.The number of outbound trips taken by Mainland Chinese, however, shows no sign of slowing down. China’s official figure of 61.9 million trips for the first six months of 2015 represents a growth rate of 13%, and without some changes apparently made to the way this number is calculated, it would probably be even higher.

Five are the reasons why that growth is likely to continue:

First, Chinese stocks started to rally after the New Year holiday this year from a level of about 3,330 for the Shanghai Composite. After a climb to almost 5,200 in June, the index is now back to roughly where it started. Many inexperienced, small-scale investors have been burned badly by such volatility, but for members of the top 5% of Chinese society affluent enough to travel beyond destinations like Hong Kong and Macau, their ability to spend a few thousand dollars for a trip to places like Phuket or California has not been seriously hampered. In a similar fashion, the economic slowdown is certainly creating headaches for many luxury brand managers — Maserati closed another showroom in Beijing recently while Swiss watch exports to China fell 40% in July. But outbound travel, even the five-star variety, is still much cheaper and affordable than a Quattroporte saloon or a Breguet chronometer.

Second, Tianjin’s residents struggle to recover from the massive explosion of 3,000 tons of dangerous chemicals on Aug. 13, many still fear the long-term problems of soil and groundwater contamination. The lack of transparency and clear information has only helped to confirm the concerns of many Chinese citizens that the country’s environmental dangers are not restricted to the air pollution seen in large cities. Travelling abroad to experience a clean and safe environment has been a strong pull factor in the past, and it will be even more so in the future.

Third, in the past, money alone was not enough to enable most Chinese citizens to travel abroad, they also needed visas. Now, however, many travel destinations have relaxed their requirements and no visa is needed or they can be issued upon arrival. For example, in Nov. last year, the U.S. and China agreed to lift visa restrictions on visitors from both countries. Chinese citizens can make multiple trips to the USA, Canada, Australia, South Korea, many European Union countries and other important destinations without the bother and restrictions as experienced before. A spontaneous short leisure trip to Guam, some weekend shopping in Seoul — not a problem for multiple-entry visa holders anymore.

Fourth, Hong Kong and Macau are losing their appeal for Chinese travellers. The two Special Administrative Regions of China accounted for 62% of the 38 million border crossings from Mainland China in the first half of 2012. In the first six months of this year, their share has dropped to 53% of the 62 million reported trips. Hong Kong saw a 23% jump in arrivals in the first half of 2012, but that number has fallen to just 5% during the same period this year. Macau dropped from +9% in the first half of 2012 to -4% in 2015. This development is certainly painful for the tourism and retail industries in Hong Kong and Macau, but for the rest of the world it means that even with Chinese outbound figures in many countries are rising faster than ever.

Last, but not least: International travel has already become a firm part of the consumption pattern of everybody who is anybody in China. Although Jeju Island may not be a leisure island destination as well-known as Bali to most Western tourists, but the COTRI Market Report predicts that the island will receive 4.5 million Chinese visitors next year. That’s a number higher than the total arrivals of all international tourists to Bali. Affluent Chinese will not likely curtail their international travel anytime soon. In fact, it seems more likely that some of the 2.02 billion domestic journeys reported for the first half of 2015 will be redirected to destinations beyond the country’s borders in the future.

Source: http://www.forbes.com/sites/profdrwolfganggarlt/2015/08/22/five-reasons-why-chinese-outbound-tourism-will-continue-to-grow-even-in-times-of-crisis/